GOVERNANCE

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasting - International Best Practices

The NRTEE offers lessons on how Canada can continue to improve its approach to emissions forecasting. In reaction to concerns raised by the NRTEE in its 2007 KPIA Response, the report examines how other countries approach similar forecasting challenges to those faced by the federal government. Key lessons for Canada include:

In terms of governance: The use of a scenario-based emissions policy forecasting, as is being done in the UK and the US, could increase transparency and facilitate the evaluation of future forecasts. Future Canadian analyses, for example, might consider starting with projections of GHG emissions based on existing laws and policies and then add scenarios to reflect assumptions based on other potential scenarios (such as provincial actions, increased gas prices, and so forth)

In terms of methodology: The use of an independent and centralized statistical agency, similar to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the US, is preferable to provide more accurate and transparent emission forecasts and to facilitate on-going audits and evaluation. In Canada, the closest federal agency resembling the independent and statistical nature of the EIA would be Statistics Canada.

Start Date: September 2007
End Date: September 2008
Status: Report released

Backgrounders

2007 Response of the NRTEE
(to the government?s first Climate Change Plan released on August 21, 2007)